Ten predictions for 2011

Hi everyone, Happy New Year!

As promised, here are my top ten predictions for 2011. I will review them again at years end to determine how wrong or right I was.


10. It is widely reported that Robert Gates will step down as Secretary of Defense. While she loves her current job, Hillary Clinton will succeed Robert Gates as US Secretary of Defense.

9. Israel will declare a further moratorium new settlements after pressure from the US in a successful effort to get a peace deal with the Palestinian Government. This will be painful for the current government but I do believe they can make it work and collectively the US and Israel can use this to pressure some movement in Iran on the nuclear front.

8. The government of Pakistan will fall after yet another military coup - this new government will have tacit and very quiet political support from the US and will be used to really clean up the boarder region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The new government will also purge the Pakistani Intelligence service of Taliban supporters

7. I may be a liberal but I see no way to avoid this - Premier Dalton McGuinty will lose the Provencal election to Conservative Tim Hudak

6. Barack Obama will have Congressional support in crafting a joint austerity plan which will include both entitlement reductions and tax reform. Elements will include:
- Phased increases to the retirement age
- The beginnings of a federal consumption tax

5. The commercialization of space will continue with:
- A suborbital flight by the VSS (Virgin Space Ship) Enterprise
- Cargo delivery to the ISS by a Space-X Dragon spacecraft launched on a Falcon 9

4. Everyone's Grizzly Bear of Little Brain, 1/2 Governor Sarah Palin, will not seek the US presidency

3. Goodluck Jonathan will win the election as Nigerian President but the PDP will be split in the process and Nigerian religious differences will begin to increase rendering the country less governable2.

2. Canadian Federal election resulting in coalition government by the Liberals and NDP, quietly supported by the Bloc. Stephen Harper will resign as Conservative Leader.

1. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il will die or become incapacitated, bringing the situation on the peninsula to a head. Outcome is uncertain but I suspect China may have made up its mind it can live with a southern lead Unified Korea on its boarder in exchange for some security guarantees from the west.

We will compare notes again before 2012!!


Paul